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S23 Round 1: Bad Predictions and Worse Analysis

Discussion in 'Articles' started by Wizzywar, Jun 5, 2022.

  1. Wizzywar

    Wizzywar Well-Known Member

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    APPEAR OFFLINE (1) vs. BLUELINE FAKERY (8)
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    If ever a series was sweepable, lo and behold. Dmart and Co. just swept the Fakery 2 weeks ago, to the tune of a 15-4 goal differential. Offline's #1 offense goes against the #9 offense; Offline's #2 defense goes against the #9 defense. The 3-peat for Ziggy and Abutt and DrugMonkey will likely come to a non-rousing finish. There just isn’t any area of the game they can leverage an advantage over the course of a series.

    How Blueline Fakery wins this series: Natural disaster, divine intervention, Veds’ mother finds out he isn’t graduating and takes his Xbox away. Offline has a devastating power play, featuring their signature OZ face-off play (right side: blue to teal to green, with Dali scoring twice as many PP goals as any other 239er). Fakery does boast the 2nd best PK, and they will need it. Their best chance to steal a game or two is to gum up the works with low scoring trap hockey. But I don’t think that will stop Veds from getting his team into the zone. Ziggy and Abutt don't hesitate to force opponent play to the point, but low-to-high makes Offline even more dangerous.

    How Appear Offline wins this series: Show up (which is easier than it sounds for Adam and Veds), prevent Greek from drinking the entire bottle of scotch. There’s just too much firepower here to blow this. They still take too many mind numbing penalties (with Adam and Dali having 99 PIMs between the two of them), but their PK has trended up to league average. It will cost them a game eventually; I don't know if that game is here.

    ***APPEAR OFFLINE WINS IN 4 GAMES***


    NOOOOOOOOO (2) vs. AIN'T NO SUNSHINE (7)
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    Sunshine had what seemed a promising post trade deadline before ending with 1 win in their final 2 series against Throws and, more importantly, Nooooooo. If anything, Sunshine outplayed Pale’s #2 line, despite losing. But the ability to get outshot and have Goodie win a game is the expectation, not a stroke of luck. An interesting battle will be Pale vs. Freak and not for all the right reasons. Pale has recently devolved back into his Andre the Giant build (which I think is a mistake with how this game is geared towards speed, especially as a trailer), but Freak is the leading hitter in the league with 349 (next is 207!). Chasing hits is always a bad idea, especially at center, but it’d be even worse here.

    How Sunshine wins this series: They need to weather the storm the night that Pale stacks his lineup with Ozzy and JRD, and they need to take at least 2/3 games the night that McDollarMenu and FwamingDwagon are in. There is a drastic shift in talent and efficacy depending on the night, and Sunshine does not have that issue, with Revenge and Wick alternating at defense. If Noooooo has to keep the puck in the corner and focus on net drives, and out of Cougar's beautiful hands and out of the middle, I consider that a strategic win.

    How Nooooooo wins this series: Pale is feeling comfortable if his top line can take 3/4 games. Sunshine has the 2nd worst 1st period goal differential (-10), so the hotter Noooooo comes out the better. Sunshine also took nearly twice the PIMs (120) of Nooooo this season, with the worst PK in the league at 68.5%. Now, Noooooo had the 2nd worst PP in the league at 15.4%. The old tale of the stoppable force and movable object. But if the PPs end up this lopsided, it’s asking for it.

    ***NOOOOOO WINS IN 5 GAMES***


    STRICTLY BUSINESS (3) vs. LIBERTY BIBERTY (6)
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    Ah, the battle of two old friends turned rivals, two of the best players in this league: Curdogg and Pensfan. Who’d you think I was going to say? Liberty has been treading water for the last few weeks, with a lot of trades up front and in net that haven’t produced the expected results. They were just swept by the same Business squad in the final series of the season. Silver lining? 2 of the games were close (3-1 and 5-4), with similar shots and TOA. Bad news? Business played their normal 1A line, and Liberty stacked their entire roster with Kane, zer0, and Renfri. Apocalyptic news? They lost a game where Pensfan played LW when Kosmic was not even there. Whoa, buddy. Interestingly, Hoodler was not in that night for Liberty. You’d think you’d want your starting center getting reps for chemistry…...

    How Strictly Business wins this series: Offense, baby. The night SeeDew is in, Marty plays center, and that’s a formidable unit. The night Dew is out, Marty switches to right defense, and jonmonkey subs in. Though that line has held its own (6-4-2), that’s a drop-off they’ll need to manage in playoffs.

    How Liberty Biberty wins this series: Their defensive core is their strength, and they are asking to lose if they don’t bring out the sweatiest of traps. Business is an average play-driving team, but they boast the 2nd best shooting % in the league and want to capitalize off rush plays. Business scored 5 goals a game against them with Kosmic in the lineup, and they will lose if the scoring is that high. They’ve only played 1 series a week since the deadline, which masks the fact that (presumably) Stoeyjopa must debut for zer0 one night.

    ***STRICTLY BUSINESS WINS IN 6 GAMES***


    GAME OF THROWS (4) vs. BIG BROWN BEAVERS (5)
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    These teams haven’t matched up since week 2, and HallofFame has traded half his team since then. As you’d expect from a 4th-5th seed battle, this could be the tightest series of the 1st round. You have a team driven by one of the best offensive defenders in the league in Hall going against one of the best forward duos in mashotpa and Dutch. But Lemanski-Barrett-Cee cannot be slept on the night of 4 games. It’s a very well balanced unit. SoLoDoLo, however, has only played 1 series — against the co-worst team in the league in Chill Pills. Tough to say how that will affect them.

    How Big Brown Beavers wins this series: Too often, the Beavers forwards need to stand still for outlet passes. They need to work on exit schemes and generating early speed in transition. Jsquad’s name hasn’t gotten enough attention, and if he replicates his regular season performance, he can keep his team in this series. With only 1 goal from their defense this season, it would be nice for Yam and Bowser to take pressure off the forwards with some opportune scoring, or at least chaotic shots and crisp cycling.

    How Game of Throws wins this series: Throws need to put Beavers’ defensemen in as many puck moving situations as possible, especially using the middle of the ice, while sealing off the boards. I wouldn’t hesitate to dump it and throw 2 forecheckers. But it’s a fine line because if the first pass gets made, you don’t want to put Beavers into rush scenarios. They lick their furry chops off the rush. On the other side, Throws need to keep neutral zone structure and steer entries to Kelch’s side against SurpriseMe; Kelch needs to play him physical at the line. Rage has manufactured a Vezina-caliber season, but no one excels at making goalies question their positioning like mashotpa. Goals cannot snowball.


    ***GAME OF THROWS WINS IN 7 GAMES***
     
    FeenixxRising and Johnnyy Bales like this.
  2. Johnnyy Bales

    Johnnyy Bales Active Member

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    Amazing Write Up Wizzzzzz
     

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